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Kembali| NIM (Student Number) | K1B017035 |
|---|---|
| Nama Mahasiswa | DEWI RISMAWATI |
| Judul Artikel | MODEL PERAMALAN TERBAIK NILAI EKSPOR MIGAS DAN NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE DAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING |
| Abstrak | Indonesia mengalami penurunan ekspor migas dan nonmigas karena turunnya permintaan selama masa pandemi Covid-19 pada tahun 2020. Pada tahun 2021 pandemi masih menjadi masalah besar di Indonesia, sehingga nilai ekspor juga mengalami fluktuasi. Akan digunakan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor migas dan nonmigas di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa metode ARIMA memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 39,39 untuk nilai ekspor migas dan 34,57 untuk nilai ekspor nonmigas, Double Exponential Smoothing dari Brown memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 14 untuk nilai ekspor migas dan 10 untuk nilai ekspor nonmigas, dan Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt memiliki nilai MAPE terkecil yaitu sebesar 12 untuk nilai ekspor migas dan 10 untuk nilai ekspor nonmigas. Jadi, metode terbaik untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor migas dan nonmigas di Indonesia adalah metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt. Hasil peramalan nilai ekspor migas di Indonesia menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt periode bulan Mei hingga Desember 2022 berturut turut sebesar $1368,27, $1401,27, $1434,27, $1467,27, $1500,27, $1533,28, $1566,28 dan $1599,28. Hasil peramalan untuk nilai ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt periode Mei hingga Desember 2022 berturut-turut sebesar $24200,20, $24762,30, $25324,40, $25886,60, $26448,70, $27010,80, $27572,90 dan $28135,00. |
| Abstrak (Inggris) | Indonesia experienced a degradation in oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports due to reduced demand during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. In 2021 the pandemic is still a big problem in Indonesia, so the result is that export values also become unstable . Autoregressive Integrated Moving Avaerage method and Double Exponential Smoothing will be used to predict the value of oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia. The results showed that the ARIMA method had a MAPE value of 39.39 for oil and gas exports and 34.57 for non-oil and gas exports, the Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing had a MAPE value of 14 for oil and gas exports and 10 for non-oil and gas exports, and the Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method had the smallest MAPE value of 12 for oil and gas exports and 10 for non-oil and gas exports. So that the best method for predicting the value of oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia was Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method. The results of forecasting the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia using the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Holt for the period from May to December 2022 were $1368.3, $1401.3, $1434.3, $1467.3, $1500.3, $1533.3, $1566.3 dan $1599.3. The forecasting results for the value of non oil-gas exports in Indonesia using the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Holt for the period May to December 2022, respectively, are $24200.20, $24762.30, $25324.40, $25886.60, $26448.70, $27010.80, $27572.90 dan $28135.00. |
| Kata Kunci | Migas, ARIMA, Double Exponential Smoothing, MAPE, Peramalan. |
| Nama Pembimbing 1 | Dra. Agustini Tripena Br. Sb, M. Si |
| Nama Pembimbing 2 | Supriyanto, M. Si |
| Tahun | 2023 |
| Jumlah Halaman | 15 |
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